Caribbean be warned: El Niño looking more likely
(A joint media release by The UWI Global Institute for Climate Smart and Resilient Development (The UWI GICSRD) and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH))
By most indications, it is increasingly likely that an El Niño will emerge in the next few months.
What is El Nino?
El Niño is the term used to refer to warmer than usual ocean surface temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.
Over the past three years, the Pacific waters have been cooler than average due to an unusually persistent La Niña. However, La Niña ended in March and the ocean temperatures in the Pacific, both at the surface and a few hundred metres below are warming so quickly that many major atmospheric centres globally are not only warning of emerging El Niño conditions but suggesting it may be a ‘significant’ event. The Caribbean must pay attention.
What are the Effects of El Nino?
For years The UWI and CIMH have independently and at times collaboratively researched how El Niño events affect the Caribbean. The research shows that during an El Niño, the Caribbean is prone to be dry, or even ‘very dry’. The 2009-2010 and 2014-2016 droughts, considered two of the most severe to impact the Caribbean in recent memory, occurred during El Niño events.
El Niño events are also associated with a reduced number of hurricanes due to less than conducive conditions for development caused by stronger upper atmospheric winds. Even if the El Niño does not develop, the end of the La Niña means that climate conditions will change from what the region has experienced over the last three years.
To compound the issue, the Caribbean Sea is unusually warm for this time of year. This adds to the uncertainty about if and how regional drought and the hurricane season activity will evolve this year as warm seas around the Caribbean ejects more moisture and heat into the atmosphere.
In addition to contributing to very hot days and nights and more heatwaves, the very warm Caribbean Sea may provide windows of opportunity for a very strong hurricane to develop, notwithstanding El Niño’s dampening effect. For this reason, the region can never let down its guard as it only takes one hurricane or
storm to cause immense economic setbacks to an impacted country and sometimes the entire region. Very warm seas also impact coastal marine ecosystems such as coral reefs and seagrass beds, and offshore fisheries may experience disruption of seasonal patterns and uncertain catches. The UWI-CIMH research also shows that the concurrent state of both the Pacific and Atlantic (both warm this year) has a strong impact on how the rainy season will unfold.
What all this means is that Caribbean governments should keep a close eye on global and regional climatic conditions over the next few months and potentially prepare for very dry and very hot conditions, without ruling out the possibility of intense storms or hurricanes.
What are the Actions to be taken?
We urge Caribbean governments, residents and other interests to continue paying close attention to shifts in global climate including the likely emergence of El Niño this year. We also urge them to draw upon the available resources and scientific expertise in the region in understanding the implications for Caribbean societies and in crafting their response.
From May 22-25, 2023 the CIMH will host the annual Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) in Kingston, Jamaica where collectively meteorologists and regional scientists will develop and present the climate outlook for the next three-months. The 2023 CariCOF will also assess the impact of the forecast on the agriculture and health sectors and for disaster risk reduction. The region is urged to pay close attention to the bulletins emerging from this meeting. The CIMH also produces a monthly Caribbean Drought Bulletin and targeted Climate Services Bulletins for key sectors which are accessible from its website https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/. The State of the Caribbean Climate Report 2020 produced by The UWI, CIMH and other collaborators, and funded by the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), should also be consulted for further information on what an El Niño event may mean for the Caribbean. The UWI GICSRD and CIMH will continue to monitor the changing climate conditions and issue additional releases.
About the CIMH
The CIMH is an Institution of the Caribbean Community and the technical Organ of the Caribbean Meteorological Organization. Its mandate is to assist in improving and developing the Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well as providing the awareness of the benefits of Meteorology and Hydrology for the economic well-being of the CIMH Member States. This is achieved through training, research, investigations, and the provision of related specialised services and advice.
In achieving its mandate, the CIMH has established an affiliation with The University of the West Indies where its primary responsibility is the delivery of the B.Sc. programme in Meteorology. The CIMH is also recognized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as
· The WMO Regional Training Centre in the Caribbean for Meteorology and Hydrology and related disciplines.
· A Regional Instrument Centre for the Caribbean.
· Centre of Excellence in Satellite Meteorology Training;
· The WMO Regional Climate Centre for the Caribbean (in Demonstration Phase).
The CIMH is a repository for the climate data from CMO Member States and an important Caribbean centre for research and development related to Meteorology, Hydrology, Agro-Meteorology and Climate in the Caribbean.
Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOF), spearheaded by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its regional bodies are active in most parts of the world. RCOFs are critical for the development and delivery of effective climate early warning information systems, in that they provide real-time seasonal climate outlooks and interpretation across relevant time and spatial scales. The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is one such RCOF that seeks to develop appropriate climate services, tailored to the Caribbean region to support the goals of climate variability and change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Find out more here.
About The University of the West Indies
The UWI has been and continues to be a pivotal force in every aspect of Caribbean development; residing at the centre of all efforts to improve the well-being of people across the region for the past 75 years.
From a university college of London in Jamaica with 33 medical students in 1948, The UWI is today an internationally respected, global university with near 50,000 students and five campuses: Mona in Jamaica, St. Augustine in Trinidad and Tobago, Cave Hill in Barbados, Five Islands in Antigua and Barbuda and its Open Campus, and global centres in partnership with universities in North America, Latin America, Asia, Africa and Europe.
The UWI offers over 800 certificate, diploma, undergraduate and postgraduate degree options in Culture, Creative and Performing Arts, Food and Agriculture, Engineering, Humanities and Education, Law, Medical Sciences, Science and Technology, Social Sciences, and Sport. As the Caribbean’s leading university, it possesses the largest pool of Caribbean intellect and expertise committed to confronting the critical issues of our region and wider world.
The UWI has been consistently ranked among the top universities globally by the most reputable ranking agency, Times Higher Education (THE). The UWI is the only Caribbean-based university to make the prestigious lists since its debut in the rankings in 2018. In addition to its leading position in the Caribbean in the World University Rankings, it is also in the top 25 for Latin America and the Caribbean and the top 100 global Golden Age universities (between 50 and 80 years old). The UWI is also featured among the leading universities on THE’s Impact Rankings for its response to the world’s biggest concerns, outlined in the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including Good Health and Wellbeing; Gender Equality and Climate Action. 2023 marks The UWI’s 75th anniversary. The Diamond jubilee milestone themed “UWI at 75. Rooted. Ready. Rising.” features initiatives purposely designed and aligned to reflect on the past, confront the present, and articulate plans for the future of the regional University.
Learn more at www.uwi.edu
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