IMF: SVG projected to grow by 6% in 2023 – CARICOM Business


The IMF has projected that the economy of St Vincent and the Grenadines will grow by 5% in 2022, supported by large-scale investment projects and recoveries in tourism and agriculture.

The Fund made this disclosure at the conclusion of the Article IV Consultation on November 14. Growth is projected to strengthen further to 6% in 2023 as large-scale construction projects get into full swing. Output decline in 2020 was the lowest in the ECCU and the economy is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in 2021 supported by strong post-volcanic eruption reconstruction activity. External inflation pressures are expected to raise the annual inflation to 5.8% in 2022.

While the primary deficit is estimated to widen as the port construction starts, the primary balance excluding pandemic-, volcano-, and port-related spending is expected to improve from -0.4% of GDP in 2021 to 1.6% in 2022. Public debt has increased to about 89% of GDP as of end-2021. The outlook is subject to significant downside risks, stemming primarily from an abrupt slowdown in trading partners’ growth, potential delays in investment projects including due to supply chain disruptions, and natural disasters.

Extract from the CARICOM BUSINESS Newsletter, Vol 5. No. 47

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